Miami v. Dallas: Initial Thoughts

So it’s come to this: The Miami Heat v. The Dallas Mavericks. The 2006 Finals is the first Finals in recent memory where at least one team was not favored to win the NBA title going into the playoffs. Yes, Dallas had been one of the best teams during the regular season, but all of us looked at past playoff failures and their inevitable meeting with the San Antonio Spurs as signs that they had no chance to make it past the second round. Yes, Miami did have Shaquille O’neal and Dwyane Wade going into the playoffs, but most critics felt that there was no way that they could get past the dominant Detroit Pistons. The Pistons were the team that most people cast as this year’s team of destiny, while the Heat were casts as this year’s team to most likely underachieve. My, how quickly the subplots have changed.

Little did the pundits know that Dirk Nowitzki would come into his own. Little did they know that he would become this growling, snarling, aggressive, beast of a player. He’s come a long way from the Dirk that got most of his offensive from behind the three point line.

Little did the critics realize that Shaq would be healthy enough to negate the Pistons interior D during the playoffs. How quickly did they forget that through 5 games last year, the Heat and an injury riddled Shaquille O’neal had a 3-2 lead over the Pistons, and probably would have closed them out if not for D-Wade’s freak injury in the closing minutes of game 5.

Despite this being an unlikely Finals match up, I’m glad that it has come to this. These teams are both well coached, deep, well prepared teams. Neither team has ever won an NBA championship, and all of the players and coaches are anticipating being able to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy.

So how do I see the series going? Personally, I think if Miami is able to split the first two games in Dallas, they will win the series. If they aren’t able to do that, I think Dallas will win the series. So it is key for Miami to get at least one victory under their belt before heading home. My reasoning for this is that the finals are set up in a 2-3-2 format, meaning that after the first two games in Dallas, three straight games will be held in Miami. Since the inception of this format only one home team (the 2004 Detroit Pistons) has won all three of those middle block games. Most teams usually win two of the three games, meaning that Miami will most likely have to win two games in Dallas to win the series. That means that if Miami wants to avoid having the pressure of having to win the last two games in Dallas, they are going to have to win at least one of the first two games of the series. I don’t believe any team has ever come back from a 2-0 deficit in the Finals under this format. The closest to do it were last season’s Pistons. Just something to keep in mind.

Strategically, I think it is going to come down to which team stops the other’s role players. I think that you are going to see Shaq, Wade, and Dirk get theirs no matter what. I think it is more of a question of what guys like Stackhouse, Van Horn, J-Will, or Antoine Walker do in the series v. what each team’s stars do. Will we see the gamer in Jason Terry come out as it has through out these playoffs and allow him to become this year’s Chauncey Billups? Will we see Antoine Walker prove all of his critics wrong and play as the perfect third option behind Wade and Shaq? Who knows? I think we’ll just have to watch and see.

But just for fun, I’ll say this: The Heat will win in 6.