Not So Fast: Is Small Ball Really the Wave of the Future in the NBA?

Go anywhere on the internet these days and you’ll read about it.  No I’m not talking about Paris Hilton’s new love interest(s), or three thousand useless Chuck Norris facts, but I am talking about the National Basketball Association’s recent renaissance. Unless you have been living in a closet over the last month, I’m sure that you are well aware of how fabulous this year’s NBA playoffs have been. On a nightly basis, sports fans from around the world have been treated to tremendous, high paced NBA action. Each series has had its share of game winners and controversial plays. But more than anything, the style of play is what everyone is talking about.

In years past, the league was bogged down by the “defense win’s championships” mantra that permeated throughout the sport. Teams like the late 80s Detroit Pistons, mid 90s New York Knicks, and the recent Detroit Piston’s were successful by playing a grind it out, defense first style. As well, most teams felt that the only way to combat such a style of play was to have a dominant low post presence. The era from 1988-2000 was probably the greatest era for low post players in the history of the league. During this time, Shaquille O’neal, Patrick Ewing, Alonzo Mourning, Brad Daugherty, Rick Smits, Hakeem Olawjuwon, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Vlade Divac, Robert Parish, Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, Kevin McHale, Tim Duncan, David Robinson, Jack Sikma, Mark Eaton, Chris Webber, and many more were known for dominating the game down low. Today, there is a dearth of traditional big men in the league. Most of the 6’10” and over guys in the league today prefer to play on the perimeter. Just look at Kevin Garnett and Dirk Nowitzki. In the 80s those guys would have been Centers, expected to play down low and bang. In this day and age they are on the perimeter shooting jump shots. Having your bigs play on the perimeter opens the game up for guard penetration and a high paced style of play.

Side Note: If we are going to blame anyone for big men liking to shoot on the perimeter more than on the inside, maybe it should be Sam Perkins, who after nailing the game winning three pointer in game 1 of the 1991 NBA Finals decided that he was going to be a three point specialist rather than a low post threat. Shortly there after you would see guys that have always been better on the low post (Charles Barkley comes to mind) decide that they too would be good three-point shooters.

The slowdown, stuff it inside style of the Knicks, Pistons, and others, and the emergence of the dominant center was also accompanied by the emergence of the shoot first point guard. Many believe that the shoot first guard emerged because of Michael Jordan. The guards that occupied the league during this time had grown up idolizing Jordan and his highlight film style. And all sought to emulate that. Instead of coming in the league trying to play the role of a traditional point guard, these guys came in trying to lead the league in scoring. This created a game where offenses were not very complex and you pretty much had tons of isolations, a few pick and rolls, and a lot of throwing the ball inside to your big man and then moving out of the way.

Slowly but surely the dominant big man started to fade from the league. As some of the low post stars from the late 80s and early 90s retired, you started to see less and less skilled low post men being drafted. This meant that the big men that ruled the previous era were not being replaced by comparable talents. This created a time where you knew only two teams were good enough to win a championship. Those two teams were the Lakers and the Spurs.

Both of those teams had the last two remaining dominant low post players in Shaquille O’neal and Tim Duncan, and because of it, every fan knew that the championship would pretty much be decided between those two teams. This started to change a bit following the 2004 season as the Pistons had just beaten and un-organized and overconfident turmoil filled Laker squad in the NBA Finals. Following that debacle we saw Shaquille O’neal get shipped out of Los Angeles. We also saw teams starting to realize that it was possible to beat the Spurs or the Lakers in the playoffs without having a dominant low post threat. Following that season Shaq’s injuries started to pile on, which caused him to be extremely less effective than he was in years past. Tim Duncan would guide his Spurs to one more championship in 2005, but this was only after Detroit pushed them in the brink in that year’s Finals.

Prior to the implosion of the Shaquille O’neal led Los Angeles Lakers, teams around the league had started to try to develop a more up tempo style to combat the low post excellence of O’neal and Duncan. These teams figured that if they ran, they would be playing to the strengths of their versatile big men that liked to play away from the basket and run the break, as well as play against the strengths of Shaq and Duncan, who hated to come outside of their comfort zone and play perimeter defense. The New Jersey Nets, Sacramento Kings, and Dallas Mavericks were the first teams to do this and do this well.

The Kings took the Lakers to the brink of elimination in the 2002 Western Conference Finals, by using their versatile, perimeter loving big men (Webber and Divac) to cause mismatches that took Shaq out of his comfort zone.

The Nets would make the finals twice during this time, almost defeating the Spurs in the 2003 Finals. They relied heavily on the fast break and the prowess of their leader Jason Kidd. Kidd would push the ball so hard and so often that he wouldn’t give opposing teams a chance to set up their half court games.

And then there was the Don Nelson coached Dallas Mavs. Nellie always believed in an uptown, wide open style of play and had successfully implemented the style while with Golden State, during the days of Run TMC. With the aid of lightning quick, pick and roll loving point guard Steve Nash, and versatile three-point shooting seven-footer, Dirk Nowitzki, Nellie transformed the basement dwelling Mavs into one of the better teams in the league.

Yet Shaq and Duncan were still dominant enough during this time to combat this up tempo style. That is, until the league implemented a few rule changes.

As outlined by Bill Simmons, Liz Robbins and others, the league (aided by Jerry Colangelo...who just so happened to own the one team to benefit the most from the changes) implemented rules that would open up the game and increase scoring.

Take a look at how Simmons outlines the most pertinent rule changes. I think he nails all of them right over the head:

1. They sped up the game by giving teams only eight seconds to get the ball over midcourt and resetting the shot clock to 14 seconds in certain situations (after a foul, a kicked ball, an illegal defense, and so on).

2. They started whistling players for the shoving/grabbing/clutching/mugging crap that had been plaguing the league since the Riley/Daly days (I still think Riley should serve some prison time though).

3. They cracked down on flagrant fouls -- almost too much, actually -- allowing players to attack the rim without worrying about being splattered against the basket support.

4. They relaxed the illegal defense rules, allowing smaller teams to use soft zones and to double-team scoring threats more easily (also allowing teams to play more scorers at the same time, since they couldn't be as much of a liability defensively).

5. Referees were ordered to allow moving picks as long as the player setting the pick didn't stick a knee out to trip the defender.

With the new rule changes and the aging of players such as Duncan and Shaq, you have teams such as the Mavericks and the Suns emerging as legitimate title contenders. You also have players such as Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki (who in years past were ridiculed for being soft and for lacking on the defensive end) becoming MVP canidates. Seeing this, I wonder how well a guy like Jason Kidd would have done if he were playing in his prime during this time. In my opinion, I thnk he would have gone down as one of the greatest players of all-time if he would have played a majority of his career during this new era of hoop. Let’s just put it this way: He almost won the championship in 2003 playing this style despite the fact that the rules hadn’t been changed yet. As well, he did this with a team that had no shooters. Just think about it. Put Jason Kidd from 2001-2003 on last year’s Phoenix Suns team. There’s no way they aren’t walking away with the title.

This new style might have also done away with the classification of a player as a tweaner. In years past, if a player did not fit a certain mold he would be outcast from the league. Think John Wallace or Ed O’Bannon. I believe those guys would have been great under a Phoenix Suns style system with these type of rules. Why do you think a guy like Tim Thomas is finally emerging? Do you think Shawn Marion would have been this much of a factor in the league during the mid-ninties? I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t have. Same could be said for Boris Diaw. If this were five or six years ago, a player like Boris Diaw would have no chance in the league. He would have been labled a tweener and sent back to play in France.

Side Note for Laker Fans: Imagine Laker tweener Brian Cook on the Suns. It’s safe to say that he could easily score 20 ppg in a role on that team. All he would have to do is run and spot up and drain. It’s a perfect system for guys like him.

Even smallish shooting guards should be able to find a place in the league now. Imagine Ben Gordon or Nate Robinson in the Suns system. Those two guys would be bigger than they already are if they were able to play alongside Nash. I mean, look at what Dallas is doing. They are getting away with playing 6’2” Jason Terry at his natural two guard position, with smallish Devon Harris running the point. The are able to do this because it is no longer necessary to have players that fit a traditional height and size for a certain position.

Despite the change in style of play around the league, I still think that a team with the dominant low post threat has the best chance of winning the championship. It’s just that the new rules have evened the playing field a bit. In years past, a team like the Suns or the Mavericks would have no chance at the title. That is definitely not the case this year.

But look, Shaquille O’neal and his Miami heat still have a very good chance at the title. Is there any question that if he were half the player he was in 2000 that the Heat would be easily marching their way to the championship. I mean seriously, Shaq was a baaaad man back then. He would have punished the Suns into oblivion. The first round Laker series proved that a team with a good strategy and with the patience not to fall into the Suns high paced game can beat them. I mean the Lakers almost beat the Suns using this strategy with Lamar Odom, Kwame Brown, and Luke Walton as their best post players. Imagine if that were Shaq inside instead of the Kwame.

Since that Laker series, all of the teams that have played the Suns have foolishly not followed the Lakers classic game plan. Instead of slowing the game down and taking the Suns out of their comfort zone, both the Clippers and Mavs have decided to try to keep up with the Suns and beat them at their own game. That’s just not a very feasible strategy. If the Mavericks (and Nowitzki in particular) were savvy and versatile enough to switch from their fast break style and bang the Suns inside a bit, they might have a better chance of winning the series than they currently have.

I’m sure you are going to see many more teams switch to this style of play, meaning that you are going to see more and more teams draft whatever the best player is on the board rather than draft a player that fits a certain need. But I still believe that a dominant big man is the most dangerous weapon in all of basketball. If the Shaq of yesteryear were playing today he would still be just as dominant. So before you totally write off the importance of having a low post player, look out for the Dwight Howard’s and Greg Oden’s of the world, because I have a feeling that they are going to eventually prove that the low post position is always going to be of importance.